“Confidence in Decline - Opportunity in Experience"

 Why Now Is the Time to Lean on Seasoned Leadership"

The Confidence Conundrum

UK business confidence has taken a sharp fall and business leaders are feeling the pressure.

In September 2025, the Institute of Directors' Economic Confidence Index dropped to –74, its lowest reading since records began in 2016.

The ICAEW Business Confidence Monitor also fell to –4.2, signalling a deepening caution across sectors.

With tightening margins, weaker demand, and rising costs, decision fatigue has set in. The risks aren't just external, it's the  internal hesitation to move that will likely be your biggest risk.

But as uncertainty continues to rise, one truth remains constant: experience matters most when confidence is lowest.

"When the going gets tough, the tough get going!"

Tough markets reward calm heads - the right experience can stop reactive decisions from becoming expensive mistakes.

The Confidence Crunch

The current data shows business leaders are under significant strain which is impacting businesses of all sizes:

• Investment and hiring intentions are at multi-year lows.
• Nearly a third of SMEs expect to scale down or restructure.
• Only 16.5% of firms surveyed by the ONS expect performance to improve in the near term.

Yet history tells us something important, periods of low confidence are where experienced leadership has the most impact.

Why? Because those who've navigated downturns before, just know what to do.

They:

• Distinguish noise and can see genuine trend shifts
• Prioritise scarce resources
• And most importantly, maintain morale and focus when others lose it

Turning Uncertainty into Strategy

Even in low-growth environments, strategic clarity is a competitive advantage.
Here are five actions that resilient organisations, often guided by seasoned NEDs, Fractional Directors, or Virtual Boards, are taking right now:

1. Running Realistic "Future Stress Test"

An experienced advisor can pressure-test your assumptions and model best-case, mid-case and worst-case futures.  e.g. When I worked at Volvo AB we used to have to develop 3 different case Scenarios for each strategic shift.

Also an External Perspectives prevents groupthink, and ensures the plan isn't built on optimism alone. Are you living/operating in a bubble?.

2. Invest Selectively, But Keep Investing

Often Sales & Marketing overheads are the first thing to be culled in a down turn, that's counterproductive and over time, will likely result in your business's downfall.

Veteran leaders understand the difference between "cutting cost" and "cutting muscle." Now is the time to back projects that improve efficiency, digital readiness, and client experience.

3. Revisit Your Strategic Narrative

Markets reward clarity.  So, "Stand out from the crowd!" 

What does your business stand for? Why should clients trust you now? Experienced NEDs and board advisors help redefine the story and aligning messages to drive momentum.

4. Balance Ambition with Governance

A virtual board or fractional director model can add discipline without bureaucracy.
It brings big-company oversight to agile firms that can't justify full-time Senior Executive (C-suite) hires.

5. Lead with Transparency and Perspective

When a storm is coming, a steady hand on the tiller matters more than ever. When senior teams share open data, realistic expectations, and adaptive plans, it builds trust internally and externally.

Why Experience Is the Ultimate Differentiator

In uncertain markets, data alone isn't enough, judgement becomes your most valuable asset.

Experienced NEDs, Fractional Directors, and Advisory Boards provide:

• Perspective; spotting early warning signs others miss
• Accountability; ensuring decisions align with long-term goals, not short-term panic
• Challenge; asking the questions that internal teams may avoid
• Calm; reducing emotional reactivity in strategic decision-making
• Governance; keeping you on track with focused discipline.

"Perspective doesn't come from headlines, it comes from hard-earned scars."

Whether you're navigating a turnaround, planning growth, or simply protecting stability, outside experience is often the missing ingredient that turns uncertainty into direction.

Time to Reflect.

• Has your leadership team revisited your business strategy in light of falling business confidence?
• Have you brought in external expertise, or considered Fractional or Non-Executive support, to challenge your assumptions?

If you have great,

• What difference has experience made to your decisions this year?

I'd love to hear your thoughts. 

Please comment below or join the discussion on LinkedIn — where we'll be exploring stories of how experienced leaders are helping firms weather the current storm.